Time Will Tell: Two Months and 100 Deaths

 

How are you?

It’s a simple question. And yet, if we really decide to unbox it, we could unleash floodgates of emotions and thoughts.

I’ve taken to asking the boys this question at the daily stand-up meetings we started doing this month. Hubby recommended we do it as a way to encourage them to stay on top of their school responsibilities. I may start officially speaking up, too. We all should be willing and able to say what we’ve accomplished, what we plan on doing tomorrow, where we see obstacles and worries.

What’s done? What do you see up ahead?

I wrote in this blog in August about the projections being made in regards to the virus, SARS-CoV-2, and the illness it causes, COVID-19. Another month in, it’s time to look at it again.

On 8/14, I said we had 64 dead, a 14-day positive testing rate of 11%, and 148 facilities-based investigations. On 9/14, we had 85 dead, a 14-day positive testing rate of 8%, and 123 facilities-based investigations. Here as of 10/14, we have 100 dead.

I said 2 months ago that a quarter of our total losses of life had occurred in the previous 30 days. I called that stunning. Well, we’re now at 36% of all loss of life having been AFTER I said that. 

What do you need help on?

Stunning, indeed. What’s even more stunning is that we have no gameplan. I watched parts of a Waukesha School District board meeting last night and several members asked to establish some rules for the district if the County was not providing them. The state legislature has unsuccessfully pushed back against Governor Evers’s mask mandate and successfully against his public gatherings restrictions. Yet they have not themselves provided leadership to encourage people, to cultivate helpful behaviors, or to provide gateways that will allow us to control the spread of this virus. They are encouraging businesses to maximize their incomes now, for citizens to “live our lives now”, heedless to the health care and life costs that will result for us down the road.

They are being reckless and destructive. I state here and now that people who are running businesses and laughing at containment measures are cushioning their own wallets now to the long term detriment of the rest of us. The politicians encouraging them are guilty of supporting threats to public health. The increased infection rates are leading to increased expenses for health care and lost wages for both the customers and the public at large.

Do you have any shout-outs for appreciation?

I have said before I’m grateful for the school district for posting their positives and quarantines. Right now, we have 21 people positive and 278 in quarantine where those numbers were 10 and 198 a month ago. Everyone should be doing this data tracking. Some claim we’re violating HIPAA with this information. It’s clear our understanding of and use of these regulations need to be revisited in light of public health crises like this pandemic. This is a situation where one’s health is connected to everyone else’s and we should be behaving as such.

In connection to that, the Deputy Superintendent, Dr. Koch, discussed how test results and contact tracing have been slowed and that can lead to control problems. He also suggested that community buy-in is needed because behaviors outside of school are driving infections. Again, we rise or fall together. Public health is an issue for all of us.

What roadblocks do you see?

Our positive rate per 100,000 population has gone from 133.7 on 9/10 to 483.6 as of 10/15 and for the overall state, it’s 627.9. As I pointed out last month, we were 34 points away from being in a lower category of risk. Now, look at us.

One could argue, I suppose, that it’s not worth society’s efforts to avoid a few deaths. That the disruptions would be too great. However, as I see some industries evolving to adapt to different norms, I question that fatalistic perspective. In addition, there is research showing possible links to long-term health problems in those who have gone through COVID-19 infections. Our societies may be on decades-long hooks in terms of direct costs and losses to inputs to society from these infections.

IHME predicted 3,708 deaths will have occurred in Wisconsin as of 12/1. In September we were at 1,210, up 185 since 8/14. Now we’re at 1,536, up 326. The current growth rates still do not indicate we’ll be at the IHME prediction, but the rate of increase is quickening. My extremely rough, straight-line chart points toward 1,830 (126 in Waukesha County) by mid-December. 

What’s next?

A month from now, the election will have come and gone. I hope we know who will be leading us. I hope there’s real change and fresh energy coming into play. I hope we have a plan and a sense of responsibility and renewed understanding that we all need to continue our involvement.

I will work on my physical well-being. I will focus on the daily care of my body, mind, and spirit. I will look for opportunities to connect with and support others. 

I wish you the best in the days ahead. As others have suggested, drink plenty of water, exercise, eat well, and sleep. Also, I hope you can surround yourself with spirits who lift you as you work forward. We need boosts from others. We need to boost each other.